Wellington Phoenix - the One Month prognosis

There is an update after this original blurb.


Fair to say I am reigniting my love of the Game that is the revived WelNix.  Decided to analyse the road ahead.

The following is from this week on towards 26/1/2019.

Date	Opponents	Venue	Position on Table
Friday 28th December 2018	Melbourne Victory	Away	2nd
Saturday 5th January 2019	Adelaide United	Away	6th
Tuesday 8th January 2019	West Sydney Wanderers	Away	8th
Saturday 12th January	Central Coast Mariners	Home	10th
Sunday 20th January 2019	Melbourne Victory	Away	2nd
Saturday 26th January 2019	Sydney FC	Home	3rd

Not a totally ardent Nixhead but can appreciate a quirk in a competition where in the matter of 3 weeks Nix play Melbourne away both days??  Yup educate me.

What is also plainly obvious is Nix have 6 matches in the coming month, 2 Home and 4 Away.  Is their current form good enough to enhance their current run?  They only play 2 sides above them (Melbourne x 2, and Sydney FC) the rest are well below.

New data as at 28th January.

Following diagram is the current Ladder.

As at 28/1/2019
Club	Played	Win	Draw	Loss	Goals For	Against	Goal Diff	Points
Perth Glory	16	11	4	1	33	16	17	37
Melbourne Victory	16	10	3	3	36	19	17	33
Sydney FC	16	10	2	4	29	19	10	32
Melbourne City FC	16	8	3	5	21	16	5	27
Adelaide United	16	7	5	4	21	17	4	26
Wellington Phoenix	16	7	5	4	24	21	3	26
Newcastle Jets	16	4	3	9	15	22	-7	15
Western Sydney Wanderers FC	16	2	4	10	23	35	-12	10
Brisbane Roar FC	16	1	6	9	18	34	-16	9
Central Coast Mariners	16	1	3	12	16	37	-21	6

Draw for rest of Season.

11 Matches 6 away and 5 Home.

Versus Top 5 sides – 6

Versus Bottom sides – 5

Now the future fixtures and prognosis.

Team	Date	Home or away	Opposition Place on Ladder.	My Forecast
Perth Glory	03/02/19	Away	1st	L
Newcastle Jets	07/02/19	Away	7th	D
Melbourne Victory FC	15/02/19	Home	2nd	D
Sydney FC	23/02/19	Home	3rd	L
Central Coast Mariners	09/03/19	Away	10th	W
West Sydneys Wanderers	17/03/19	Home	8th	W
Newcastle Jets	30/03/19	Home	7th	W
Adelaide United	07/04/19	Away	5th	D
Brisbane	12/04/19	Away	9th	W
Melbourne City FC	21/04/19	Home	4th	W
Perth Glory	28/04/19	Away	1st	L
			Proposed Points	17
			Table Season End	43

Population base for A League teams.

Just a quick blog highlighting the population base for A League football teams.

Sydney  Population  4,526,000  Two Teams - Sydney FC and Western Sydney - Population base per team -  2,260,000

Melbourne  4,353,000  Two Teams  -  Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory  Population base per team - 2,160,000

Brisbane Roar  -  Population  2,209,000  One team only.

Perth Glory  - Population  1,958,000  one team only.

Adelaide United   Population 1,288,000 one team only.

Hard to call this - Wellington Phoenix Population base is as a city 234,000 or as a New Zealand team and 4.7 million.

Newcastle Jets  Population 434,000 one team.

Central Coast Mariners - Population 325,000

Talking Up Wellington Phoenix A League 2017/18

I will be doing an update here with results as they come in. White Text Black Backround (Like This)

Are the Nix about to turn around recent poor performances - new players, new manager and seemingly a better drilled side going forward??

Well possibly!!

Hard to see how other teams stack up but to be fair all teams start with a clean slate and the first 10 games of the season will determine how all teams do indeed stack up.

Last year the first 10 games for the Nix were 5 home and 5 away.  The same applies to this season (see draw below)  I'm guessing we might just have a great start to the season (Nix need to keep a clean sheet at home - including no losses) That's a mental hurdle they have to get over and if Darije Kalezić can do that yes awesome turnaround.

The biggest hurdle the Nix need to hurdle is their poor performances in the midfield.  Last year (and years before) the back three/four have been under a lot of pressure due to turnovers in the wrong end of the paddock and also the forwards have lacked quality through balls, largely feeding off long ball attacks from the back.  I'd just love to see them getting good ball and using that ball instead of gifting it to the opposition.

Draw (10 rounds.)

Rnd 1  8 Oct  Home to Adelaide  Drawn 1-1 (Dario Videsic 5')
Rnd 2  13 Oct Away to Sydney FC  Loss Away 2-3 Videsic 44' & Kaluderovic  60'
Rnd 3 21 Oct  Away to Melbourne FC  1-nil loss to MCFC Nix 8th  MCFC are 1st on ladder
Rnd 4  28 Oct  Home to Brisbane Roar  Roar are last Nix should win 2-0 or 3-1Andrija Kaludjerovic 1' 20', Roy Krishna 18'
Rnd 5  4 Nov  Away to Newcastle Jets  Jets are now 3rd. Nix goaless
Rnd 6  12 Nov  Home to Perth Glory  Glory are 6th (one ahead of Nix)
Rnd 7  18 Nov  Away to West Sydney Wanderers WSW are currently 3rd
Rnd 8  25 Nov  Home to Central Coast Mariners  CCM are placed 9th
Rnd 9  3 Dec  Home to Melbourne Victory  Victory are 7th.
Rnd 10  9 Dec Away to Brisbane Roar.  Roar are still tailgunners - 10th.

So far I like what I see. Although no win as yet but there is huge promise.

I love my sport.  I follow the Nix because they are our team. I may not be a true YF supporter and football savvy participant but in spirit I want them to win something.  The targets need to be realistic - win and draw and settle on a top 6 after 10 rounds.  Not too much to ask it is it??

All Whites - Road to FIFA WC 2018.

Now the All Whites have booked their trip to South America it is timely now to see who they could face.  Currently four teams are in contention for the play off match versus our boys, Peru, Argentina, Chile and Paraguay.

Oct 5th sees the match that will probably decide that team to face us (home and away), Peru versus Argentina but no surprises if it's any other of the teams above.  The All Whites have a Westpac Stadium match in November with the return leg yet to be confirmed.

It's a bit hard actually picking that team such is the openness of the South American competition. But we can't also rest on our laurels, any South American team is dangerous on it's day.

Russia v All Whites Preview

Welcome to my analysis on AllWhites at Confederation Cup in Russia this week.  The All Whites  (Ranked 95) play Russia (Ranked 63) this Sunday our time. Then they face Mexico (Ranked 17) and Portugal (Ranked 8)

Fair to say only one match can be won on paper is Russia, but it would be fair to say they can catch Mexico unaware and scrape a draw or win. Portugal is a mountain they'll find hard to conquer.


So what of Russia's games in past 18 months.  6 games, 2 wins, 2 losses,; and 2 draws.  Results on paper:

vs Chile (4th ranked)  1-1
vs Romania (46th ranked)  1-0
vs Qatar  (88th ranked)  1-2
vs Costa Rica (19th ranked)  3-4
vs Ghana  (49th ranked)   1-0
vs Turkey  (25th ranked)  0-0

Russia I feel are very vulnerable and I think the All Whites have the team to continue Russia's misery in internationals though that is tempered with the fact New Zealand football's opposition of late is not quite the quality of Confed Cup teams.

It would be great we get a win over Russia and a draw (or two) from the other teams, meaning we'd be in a good position to advance to the knockout games.

In the past 18 months Portugal has played 15 matches in Internationals, winning 10, 3 draws and 2 losses.  The two losses were Sweden and Switzerland with a majority of the wins against very low ranking countries.  With that in mind the All Whites do have a bolters chance to draw with them.  As Portugal is the top ranked team in our draw they should lead the group.

And in the past 17 matches by Mexico, they have played 17 matches, won 11, Drawn 5 and 1 loss.  It should be noted almost all those opponents were countries way down the rankings.  One of those wins was against the All Whites on our patch, winning 2-1.  So with that Knowledge I am thinking maybe Mexico is either a close win for us or a draw. Either way we could be 2nd on the group ranking.

Bring it On All Whites.

I'm alright Ref, just a bit dizzy.

Yes we are all now well aware the current catchcry is concussion in combative sports.  Sports such the like of Rugby League, Rugby, Football, Boxing, MMA, and NFL are falling under the radar as high incidence of concussion issues come to notice.

Last week there was a report that surfaced about 5 members of a Taranaki Rugby team playing in the 60's who now suffer early onset dementia.  So another link suggesting this prevalence of dementia is obviously a result of lax concussion rules "we had a head knock and were back playing following week"  Real Men,Weekend Warriors, and ignorant - yes!!  You can't change the past but can alter the future.

And a lady scientist in UK has just waded in with her change, no tackling until after 18??  Ok that's a scientist talking and one that has never spent 80 minutes in the mud and grime But she has a point, well sort of.  I think better science needs to be addressed, i.e do a sports wide analysis to determine when concussion was an issue.

And this issue will increase.  More and more people are playing more sport, and more and more

games are being played  (NZ rugby top players up to 10-12 pre 1995, over 30 post 1995).  We also have better treatment of concussed players, but still needs tinkering to protect from long term sufferance.

But I think too this study needs to be tempered and remove all emotive content from it. What is evident is that many countries are doing different studies and no one has a common forum to sit at and to cooperate in studying all data and to offer a way forward. But you also have to analyse all living Dementia sufferers to find common ground. And that would be thorough because I feel men are more susceptible to head injuries sport or non sport related.  I mean I knew two mates, since deceased who were early onset dementia suffers. Both were musicians, both liked their booze/drugs and both didn't play sports.  The only concussion issue would have been booze falls related.  Or not!!

And that is where good science needs to be issued to work alongside sporting bodies (or other defined cause events) and come to a determination.  We have to remember, Concussive Head Knocks whatever the cause are a life event.  Stopping weekend and professional warriors from doing what they love is ludicrous.  Supply the science, educate the target concussive audience and let them make their own decision about their possible ailment when older.

By rights I will suffer Dementia, but not from sporting head knocks.

The Fall and Fall of New Zealand All Whites Football team.

New rankings as at 8/4/2016 at end of this article.

I have tweeted recently about the worrying drop in the rankings of the national team.  And alongside this demise is the mismanagement of that national team,  more especially Cattle Class Gate.  New Zealand football, as I see it, is in a very dire state and bound to not get better in the immediate future.'

But why is NZ Football in that state?  The 2010 FIFA WC should have delivered to NZF financial recompense to help the association prosper.  There should have been a lot more friendlies over the past five years to help keep the team competitive and to keep a solid player base going forward.  But it didn't do anything positive it appears.  There have been 5 friendlies in the past 2 years, and all against lower ranked Asian teams. That is not going to promote the team back up the rankings .

This guy would have been in the AW when the team ranked 47 over ten years ago.  But it's not players that is the issue, if you don't have games you don't need players or foster talent.  All one has to do is look at Hockey, Rowing, Yachting and Equestrian to see how national sporting organisations use the limited finances they have.  So the question goes to NZF and their money allocations.  Has the resurgence of Club Football come at the expense of International games?


Let's just recap the reason behind this blog.  5 months ago NZF AW were ranked 125.  Yesterday they were ranked 159.  That's not a very good turn of events. Samoa (164), American Samoa (165) and Cook Islands (169) are now in a position to pass our venerated international outfit.  The bonus for us in Oceania is our perennial rivals, New Caledonia have dropped below the other three mentioned above.

I shudder to think if we'll ever see these scenes on the world stage again??

Editted to add (8/4/2016)

If you go to this link you'll see the dismal demise of the Oceania football. 3 months ago all nations were on average 5 points higher.  Does this fall reflect a lack of interest, lack of money, or lack support from FIFA?  I think all three factor in.  With the current FIFA issues on a political front, all FIFA football initiatives and support to struggling federations are on hold, and especially the likes of Oceania, too hard basket.

I think after FIFAWC2010 we were around 40 in the world.  Now we languish on a downward slide at 163.  Can NZ Football address the issues?

Why Oceania/Pacifica gets snubbed.

It's an unrivaled area in the world.  Spread across thousands of square miles of ocean and clustered in small groups of islands or just a plain individual islands, Oceania (if referring to Football) or The Pacific Islands have historically been hard to get to, have small populations, and have very little in the way of vibrant rich economies.  They are small in every aspect of the world.  But in the larger scale of the world as a place, they are tiny, and economically very very poor.  The largest country in this group is New Zealand with a population of just 4.5 million.

So what of these countries in the global village?  Let's first look at Football.  In many of these small countries, football is the main sport and played regularly between countries in this group.  They're not the best teams in the world, and often could be said, globally, probably the worst.  That's not the fault of those countries, when you have a very small population base to draw from, you'll have indicative results.  But like all sports, there is a passion, and passion in world football is a given.  So with that in mind, their efforts should be rewarded in some way  to improve their lot and make them have a goal to attain sporting notoriety.  But FIFA continually neglect this area of Oceania in not allowing automatic entry to World Cup, the only global federation with this honour.

But then you see that that makes sound sense.  There is no money coming from those islands to curry favour in FIFA's boardroom, except New Zealand, and then that amount of cash from that nation is a pittance in world football circles.  So it is fair then that FIFA take their stance?  FIFA's role in it's sport is to foster competitive football across the globe, through competitions, through regional development, and through financial support.  That it doesn't do this well in the Pacific is well recorded.

And yes, you have heard this somewhere else.  Another world sporting body has been doing this for years, but probably less publicly.  The International Rugby Board (IRB) have been making a lot of noises in the past about growing the game in the region, even hinting at pouring money into those countries that have a good rugby base (and a sport more popular in their country than football).  But with the IRB making ruminations and then not following through a lot of rugby players (and future players) have left their homelands (weakening their national teams) for the bigger dollars of rugby elsewhere, or switching codes to Rugby League.  Sure this avenue gives up and coming players a new right of passage for individual endeavour, but at the expense of national representation and kudos.

FIFA and IRB both see the Pacific Islands as nuisance factor it is fair to say and both continue to ignore the reason sport exists, the need to bring excellence to the paddock.  Sure they won't be world beaters, but small nation teams in the past have surprised and created lasting sporting memories.  If both organisations don't give hope then why should teams be formed and play under that code?

FIFA World Cup - a summary

Well it's fair to say the World Rankings are quite accurate when it comes to Football, especially given the results of the recent World Cup.  So I decided to analyse rankings and placings and provide some insight.

Below is a list of teams as ranked in top 16 (unless otherwise stated) on 5th June 2014 before the WC.  Alongside is where they managed to get in the Cup.



1. Spain  Didn't make it out of group.
2. Germany  Won the final.
3. Brazil  4th
4. Portugal   Didn't make it out of group.
5. Argentina  2nd
6. Switzerland   Last 16 no further.
7. Uruguay  Last 16 no further.
8. Colombia  Quarterfinals no further.
9. Italy   Didn't make it out of group.
10. England   Didn't make it out of group.
11. Belgium  Quarterfinals no further.
12. Greece  Last 16 no further
13. USA Last 16 no further
14. Chile  Last 16 no further
15. Netherlands  3rd
16 Ukraine (failed to qualify)

17.  France Qualified and last 16 no further.
20.  Mexico  Qualified and last 16 no further.
22.  Algeria  Qualified and last 16 no further.
28.  Costa Rica Qualified and last 16 no further.
44.  Nigeria  Qualified and last 16 no further.

So it's very good to see most of the top ranked 16 teams made the last 16, with the obvious exceptions of England, Spain (reigning World Champs), Portugal and Italy (Interesting also that three of those countries are considered the hotbeds for club football in the world.)

As usual World Cups of any sporting code throw up surprises and the last five teams mentioned separately above certainly surprised, none more so than Nigeria, the only team making the last 16 outside the top 32 ranked teams in the world.

The rankings do match current achievements though the demise of Spain and Portugal especially will be interesting to see when the new rankings come out.  On paper then it was no surprise Germany won, Brazil and Argentina made the final four, leaving the only real surprise being the Netherlands finishing 3rd.

Great World Cup?  Maybe, maybe not.  Certainly a spectacle that provided high drama, dubious officiating, and that burgeoning Hollywooding, but yes I enjoyed what I saw and I saw plenty (thanks to time zones being in synch for once).  Bring on 2018.

Barclays English Premier League Prognosis

Ok so there is two months or so of top football to play and realistically 5 teams are in contention at the top of the table.  I know folks have their favourites and none of those top teams float my boat so I think as an analyst I provide a fresh but viable result based analysis for the remainder of the EPL.

Below is the prognosis for those top five teams and at the end how they are likely to finish on the table.

Chelsea
Current Points		60
as at 23 Feb
	Prognosis	84
To Play	Home away	For	Against	Points
Fulham	Away	2		3
Spurs	Home	1	1	1
Aston Villa	Away	2	2	1
Arsenal	Home	1	1	1
Stoke	Home	4	0	3
Crystal Palace	Away	2	0	3
Swansea	Away	2	1	3
Sunderland	Home	3	1	3
Liverpool	Away	1	2	0
Norwich	Home	2	0	3
Cardiff	Away	1	0	3
				24
Arsenal
Current Points		59
as at 23 Feb
	Prognosis	76
To Play	Home away	For	Against	Points
Stoke	Away	1	1	1
Swansea	Home	2	0	3
Spurs	Away	0	2	0
Chelsea	Away	1	1	1
Man City	Home	0	1	0
Everton	Away	1	2	0
West Ham	Home	3	0	3
Hull	Away	1	0	3
Newcastle	Home	1	2	0
West Brom	Home	3	1	3
Norwich	Away	5	0	3
				17
Manchester City
Current Points		57
as at 23 Feb
	Prognosis	81
To Play	Home away	For	Against	Points
Aston Villa	Home	4	0	3
Hull	Away	1	1	1
Fulham	Home	4	0	3
Man United	Away	2	2	1
Arsenal	Away	1	0	3
Southhampton	Home	2	0	3
Liverpool	Away	1	2	0
West Brom	Home	3	1	3
Crystal Palace	Away	2	0	3
Everton	Away	2	2	1
West Ham	Home	3	1	3
				24
Liverpool
Current Points		53
as at 23 Feb
	Prognosis	83
To Play	Home away	For	Against	Points
Swansea	Home	1	0	3
Southhampton	Away	2	0	3
Sunderland	Home	3	1	3
Man United	Away	1	1	1
Cardiff	Away	1	0	3
Spurs	Home	2	2	1
West Ham	Away	3	1	3
Man City	Home	2	1	3
Norwich	Away	2	1	3
Chelsea	Home	2	1	3
Crystal Palace	Away	3	0	3
Newcastle	Home	2	2	1
				30
Spurs
Current Points		50
as at 23 Feb
	Prognosis	79
To Play	Home away	For	Against	Points
Norwich	Away	2	1	3
Cardiff	Home	1	0	3
Chelsea	Away	1	1	1
Arsenal	Home	2	0	3
Southhampton	Home	3	0	3
Liverpool	Away	2	2	1
Sunderland	Home	3	0	3
West Brom	Away	2	0	3
Fulham	Home	4	1	3
Stoke	Away	1	0	3
Aston Villa	Home	2	0	3
				29
Prognosis Standings
Chelsea	84
Liverpool	83
Manchester City	81
Spurs	79
Arsenal	76

Note to Add.  Have since been informed Man City have a game in hand versus Sunderland (which didn't show at Barclays Fixtures Page) so given 3 points for that game they tie with Chelsea on 84 points and Goal difference will settle the comp.

I neglected to place the Final Standings for the 2014/15 EPL!!

1	Chelsea (C)	38	26	9	3	73	32	+41	87	Qualification for the Champions League group stage
2	Manchester City	38	24	7	7	83	38	+45	79
3	Arsenal	38	22	9	7	71	36	+35	75
4	Manchester United	38	20	10	8	62	37	+25	70	Qualification for the Champions League play-off round
5	Tottenham Hotspur	38	19	7	12	58	53	+5	64