Wellington Phoenix - the One Month prognosis

There is an update after this original blurb.


Fair to say I am reigniting my love of the Game that is the revived WelNix.  Decided to analyse the road ahead.

The following is from this week on towards 26/1/2019.

Date	Opponents	Venue	Position on Table
Friday 28th December 2018	Melbourne Victory	Away	2nd
Saturday 5th January 2019	Adelaide United	Away	6th
Tuesday 8th January 2019	West Sydney Wanderers	Away	8th
Saturday 12th January	Central Coast Mariners	Home	10th
Sunday 20th January 2019	Melbourne Victory	Away	2nd
Saturday 26th January 2019	Sydney FC	Home	3rd

Not a totally ardent Nixhead but can appreciate a quirk in a competition where in the matter of 3 weeks Nix play Melbourne away both days??  Yup educate me.

What is also plainly obvious is Nix have 6 matches in the coming month, 2 Home and 4 Away.  Is their current form good enough to enhance their current run?  They only play 2 sides above them (Melbourne x 2, and Sydney FC) the rest are well below.

New data as at 28th January.

Following diagram is the current Ladder.

As at 28/1/2019
Club	Played	Win	Draw	Loss	Goals For	Against	Goal Diff	Points
Perth Glory	16	11	4	1	33	16	17	37
Melbourne Victory	16	10	3	3	36	19	17	33
Sydney FC	16	10	2	4	29	19	10	32
Melbourne City FC	16	8	3	5	21	16	5	27
Adelaide United	16	7	5	4	21	17	4	26
Wellington Phoenix	16	7	5	4	24	21	3	26
Newcastle Jets	16	4	3	9	15	22	-7	15
Western Sydney Wanderers FC	16	2	4	10	23	35	-12	10
Brisbane Roar FC	16	1	6	9	18	34	-16	9
Central Coast Mariners	16	1	3	12	16	37	-21	6

Draw for rest of Season.

11 Matches 6 away and 5 Home.

Versus Top 5 sides – 6

Versus Bottom sides – 5

Now the future fixtures and prognosis.

Team	Date	Home or away	Opposition Place on Ladder.	My Forecast
Perth Glory	03/02/19	Away	1st	L
Newcastle Jets	07/02/19	Away	7th	D
Melbourne Victory FC	15/02/19	Home	2nd	D
Sydney FC	23/02/19	Home	3rd	L
Central Coast Mariners	09/03/19	Away	10th	W
West Sydneys Wanderers	17/03/19	Home	8th	W
Newcastle Jets	30/03/19	Home	7th	W
Adelaide United	07/04/19	Away	5th	D
Brisbane	12/04/19	Away	9th	W
Melbourne City FC	21/04/19	Home	4th	W
Perth Glory	28/04/19	Away	1st	L
			Proposed Points	17
			Table Season End	43

Population base for A League teams.

Just a quick blog highlighting the population base for A League football teams.

Sydney  Population  4,526,000  Two Teams - Sydney FC and Western Sydney - Population base per team -  2,260,000

Melbourne  4,353,000  Two Teams  -  Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory  Population base per team - 2,160,000

Brisbane Roar  -  Population  2,209,000  One team only.

Perth Glory  - Population  1,958,000  one team only.

Adelaide United   Population 1,288,000 one team only.

Hard to call this - Wellington Phoenix Population base is as a city 234,000 or as a New Zealand team and 4.7 million.

Newcastle Jets  Population 434,000 one team.

Central Coast Mariners - Population 325,000

Talking Up Wellington Phoenix A League 2017/18

I will be doing an update here with results as they come in. White Text Black Backround (Like This)

Are the Nix about to turn around recent poor performances - new players, new manager and seemingly a better drilled side going forward??

Well possibly!!

Hard to see how other teams stack up but to be fair all teams start with a clean slate and the first 10 games of the season will determine how all teams do indeed stack up.

Last year the first 10 games for the Nix were 5 home and 5 away.  The same applies to this season (see draw below)  I'm guessing we might just have a great start to the season (Nix need to keep a clean sheet at home - including no losses) That's a mental hurdle they have to get over and if Darije Kalezić can do that yes awesome turnaround.

The biggest hurdle the Nix need to hurdle is their poor performances in the midfield.  Last year (and years before) the back three/four have been under a lot of pressure due to turnovers in the wrong end of the paddock and also the forwards have lacked quality through balls, largely feeding off long ball attacks from the back.  I'd just love to see them getting good ball and using that ball instead of gifting it to the opposition.

Draw (10 rounds.)

Rnd 1  8 Oct  Home to Adelaide  Drawn 1-1 (Dario Videsic 5')
Rnd 2  13 Oct Away to Sydney FC  Loss Away 2-3 Videsic 44' & Kaluderovic  60'
Rnd 3 21 Oct  Away to Melbourne FC  1-nil loss to MCFC Nix 8th  MCFC are 1st on ladder
Rnd 4  28 Oct  Home to Brisbane Roar  Roar are last Nix should win 2-0 or 3-1Andrija Kaludjerovic 1' 20', Roy Krishna 18'
Rnd 5  4 Nov  Away to Newcastle Jets  Jets are now 3rd. Nix goaless
Rnd 6  12 Nov  Home to Perth Glory  Glory are 6th (one ahead of Nix)
Rnd 7  18 Nov  Away to West Sydney Wanderers WSW are currently 3rd
Rnd 8  25 Nov  Home to Central Coast Mariners  CCM are placed 9th
Rnd 9  3 Dec  Home to Melbourne Victory  Victory are 7th.
Rnd 10  9 Dec Away to Brisbane Roar.  Roar are still tailgunners - 10th.

So far I like what I see. Although no win as yet but there is huge promise.

I love my sport.  I follow the Nix because they are our team. I may not be a true YF supporter and football savvy participant but in spirit I want them to win something.  The targets need to be realistic - win and draw and settle on a top 6 after 10 rounds.  Not too much to ask it is it??

Who be falling on their Sword - NZ Football

Sadly I was right. Fall and Fall of NZ Football.  Last November out of pure chance, I checked the current standing of the National Team which resulted in that blog.  Nothing happened.  Then late December All Whites Coach Anthony Hudson made it very public how he felt about the state of NZ Football.  NZFootball's Andy Martin followed soon after with his thoughts, suggesting things are ok.

So things continue, seemingly all good.  Then mid January the Wellington Phoenix announce with glee the transfer from Birmingham City to Nix of striker Alex Jones.  AWESOME!!  So everyone is cockahoop and folks go and do what they have to do, supposedly.  But like all things coated in gold chocolate, the shit hit the fan!!

What appears to be huge misfortune, with neither The Nix or NZF apportioning blame or taking responsibility, Alex Jones misses out on a juicy contract and the organisations that are The Nix and NZF are not only walking around trying to find fault, but also are looked at longingly by the sporting public with a state of conjecture and ridicule.

Taking you back to Anthony Hudson's outburst post Christmas.  One of his strongest comments and a sign that deep down NZF is an amateurish shemozzle.  In his words:

In the second year of a contract which takes him through until the end of the 2018 World Cup in Russia, Hudson is frustrated with what he perceives as a poor culture within New Zealand football circles and the fact the All Whites only played three games in 2015. 

And his summation is this, the Holiday culture evident in New Zealand football in coaching and administration is disturbing.  But also aligned with that was the lack of football (ironically the name of the sport) on the international stage and one not getting better (zero matches in the friendly window this year, apportioned to lack of funding to get teams here).  Maybe if all NZF teams went cattle class there'd be some funds.

I have a good question.  If NZF are crying foul regarding funding visiting teams for tournaments and for the top teams away, why are they crying poverty?  I'm hoping there isn't an undercurrent of financial mismanagement and a possible crisis in the process.  And from memory the White Ferns and age group teams have had quite a few journeys overseas so is the funding being put in the right place.

But that's  by the by.  For now CEO NZ Football needs to stand up to scrutiny, not some back room administrator.  And the Nix either need an apology or need to revise the way they do business.  My bet is it's a NZ Football issue as both Anthony Hudson and Ernie Merrick have had similar issues going back.

And Alex, please don't let this leave a sad taste in your mouth and come back again one day.'