Wellington Phoenix - the One Month prognosis

There is an update after this original blurb.


Fair to say I am reigniting my love of the Game that is the revived WelNix.  Decided to analyse the road ahead.

The following is from this week on towards 26/1/2019.

Date	Opponents	Venue	Position on Table
Friday 28th December 2018	Melbourne Victory	Away	2nd
Saturday 5th January 2019	Adelaide United	Away	6th
Tuesday 8th January 2019	West Sydney Wanderers	Away	8th
Saturday 12th January	Central Coast Mariners	Home	10th
Sunday 20th January 2019	Melbourne Victory	Away	2nd
Saturday 26th January 2019	Sydney FC	Home	3rd

Not a totally ardent Nixhead but can appreciate a quirk in a competition where in the matter of 3 weeks Nix play Melbourne away both days??  Yup educate me.

What is also plainly obvious is Nix have 6 matches in the coming month, 2 Home and 4 Away.  Is their current form good enough to enhance their current run?  They only play 2 sides above them (Melbourne x 2, and Sydney FC) the rest are well below.

New data as at 28th January.

Following diagram is the current Ladder.

As at 28/1/2019
Club	Played	Win	Draw	Loss	Goals For	Against	Goal Diff	Points
Perth Glory	16	11	4	1	33	16	17	37
Melbourne Victory	16	10	3	3	36	19	17	33
Sydney FC	16	10	2	4	29	19	10	32
Melbourne City FC	16	8	3	5	21	16	5	27
Adelaide United	16	7	5	4	21	17	4	26
Wellington Phoenix	16	7	5	4	24	21	3	26
Newcastle Jets	16	4	3	9	15	22	-7	15
Western Sydney Wanderers FC	16	2	4	10	23	35	-12	10
Brisbane Roar FC	16	1	6	9	18	34	-16	9
Central Coast Mariners	16	1	3	12	16	37	-21	6

Draw for rest of Season.

11 Matches 6 away and 5 Home.

Versus Top 5 sides – 6

Versus Bottom sides – 5

Now the future fixtures and prognosis.

Team	Date	Home or away	Opposition Place on Ladder.	My Forecast
Perth Glory	03/02/19	Away	1st	L
Newcastle Jets	07/02/19	Away	7th	D
Melbourne Victory FC	15/02/19	Home	2nd	D
Sydney FC	23/02/19	Home	3rd	L
Central Coast Mariners	09/03/19	Away	10th	W
West Sydneys Wanderers	17/03/19	Home	8th	W
Newcastle Jets	30/03/19	Home	7th	W
Adelaide United	07/04/19	Away	5th	D
Brisbane	12/04/19	Away	9th	W
Melbourne City FC	21/04/19	Home	4th	W
Perth Glory	28/04/19	Away	1st	L
			Proposed Points	17
			Table Season End	43

Talking Up Wellington Phoenix A League 2017/18

I will be doing an update here with results as they come in. White Text Black Backround (Like This)

Are the Nix about to turn around recent poor performances - new players, new manager and seemingly a better drilled side going forward??

Well possibly!!

Hard to see how other teams stack up but to be fair all teams start with a clean slate and the first 10 games of the season will determine how all teams do indeed stack up.

Last year the first 10 games for the Nix were 5 home and 5 away.  The same applies to this season (see draw below)  I'm guessing we might just have a great start to the season (Nix need to keep a clean sheet at home - including no losses) That's a mental hurdle they have to get over and if Darije Kalezić can do that yes awesome turnaround.

The biggest hurdle the Nix need to hurdle is their poor performances in the midfield.  Last year (and years before) the back three/four have been under a lot of pressure due to turnovers in the wrong end of the paddock and also the forwards have lacked quality through balls, largely feeding off long ball attacks from the back.  I'd just love to see them getting good ball and using that ball instead of gifting it to the opposition.

Draw (10 rounds.)

Rnd 1  8 Oct  Home to Adelaide  Drawn 1-1 (Dario Videsic 5')
Rnd 2  13 Oct Away to Sydney FC  Loss Away 2-3 Videsic 44' & Kaluderovic  60'
Rnd 3 21 Oct  Away to Melbourne FC  1-nil loss to MCFC Nix 8th  MCFC are 1st on ladder
Rnd 4  28 Oct  Home to Brisbane Roar  Roar are last Nix should win 2-0 or 3-1Andrija Kaludjerovic 1' 20', Roy Krishna 18'
Rnd 5  4 Nov  Away to Newcastle Jets  Jets are now 3rd. Nix goaless
Rnd 6  12 Nov  Home to Perth Glory  Glory are 6th (one ahead of Nix)
Rnd 7  18 Nov  Away to West Sydney Wanderers WSW are currently 3rd
Rnd 8  25 Nov  Home to Central Coast Mariners  CCM are placed 9th
Rnd 9  3 Dec  Home to Melbourne Victory  Victory are 7th.
Rnd 10  9 Dec Away to Brisbane Roar.  Roar are still tailgunners - 10th.

So far I like what I see. Although no win as yet but there is huge promise.

I love my sport.  I follow the Nix because they are our team. I may not be a true YF supporter and football savvy participant but in spirit I want them to win something.  The targets need to be realistic - win and draw and settle on a top 6 after 10 rounds.  Not too much to ask it is it??

A (Kiwi) perspective on the state of Male sports in Orstaya

Australia has a population 1/4 the size of Great Britain and has sports teams that effectively match per capital those teams. But I'm just going to focus on the Australian Teams.

It's fair to say that countries choose sporting competitions with the goal to make results realisable and the competition fair. So starting with the sport that has very little going for it in Australia or New Zealand.  Football (soccer please).  The A League has a cap of 10 teams, 9 in Australia and 1 in NZ.  You'd think with the growing player base and better Asia/Oceania competition they would foster more than 10.  Not so.  Seems their population demographics say they would ruin the competition if they increased.  So 10 teams it will remain.

Ergo the Australian NBL competition, they too have done there homework.  An 8 team competition is just the ticket, given in their case the lack of sponsorship/team ownership.  Outside of the USA basketball is a boutique sport.

Starting to see a pattern here.  Teams that play the round ball code struggle and the oval Ball codes rule.

Ok so we now pass onto the only game in Australia that doesn't have a World Cup.  As Baseball is to America, AFL is to Aussie.  Chalk and cheese.  By far he biggest competition in Australia with 18 teams with 18 players per game, AFL is a huge player base to draw from (1,400,000 Wiki)  The fact that AFL survives is down to the longevity and popularity of the sport.  And marketing.  Other sports in the same city centres struggle to get local athletes to their sport.

Equally as popular in all regions barring West Australia and Northern Territories, is the NRL.  The National Rugby League has 16 teams and many outside the original hotbed of the game, Sydney. The sport has gone through some massive changes in the near past but seems settled now.  And it is a fluid competition with sometimes one or two teams continually at the top. Probably fair to say the game in Australia has similarities to AFL as far as competition and coverage

And then there is the Super 18 rugby teams, five in number and getting worse as time goes by.  Plainly put, Australian rugby is in dire need of a return to the good days.  Numbers to the game are shrinking and with that shrinking the $$$$ are simply drying up.  With better placed teams in AFL and NRL the Rugby $$$ and player base are diminishing.

And money needs to be pumped into the game but that "Old" money is gone.

And simply put, there is only so much money and resources across all sports to be had.

Time for a change - Officiating In Aussie Comps

 It's fair to say New Zealand teams playing in Aussie competitions have always seemed to have the rough end of the stick when it comes to officialdom.  The Warriors, our first Aussie comp team, in the early days were often finding themselves at the wrong end of many rulings, a lot down to favoritism towards Aussie teams on the park being prevalent.  The Breakers too have a history of running foul (quite literally) of Aussie based refs and even after many years in the competition they still face the occasional issue.  And we can't forget the Wellington Phoenix.  The recent match versus Melbourne Heart in Melbourne clearly shows that there is a deep underlying issue.

But for their part, the FFA, the governing body for the A League and refereeing appointments, have finally heard the Nix and acted.  Too late for the Nix though, the damage was done. This admission by the FFA suggests things might be improving, but are they?  All three errors by the official were glaring omissions on his behalf and he's not helped by inept officiating from the sideline.  Clearly there was a hand ball.  Clearly Sigmund's red card clash was run of the play tangling and nil intent to foul, and clearly that Heart Penalty was milked.  Clearly the FFA has only one recourse, not let Ben Williams, the official, ref again in the A League (and to toughen the penalty, drop his name from WC contention).

I think all three sports suffer from dubious decisions, usually weighted to the opposition.  Seems there is a culture that the little guy from across the Tasman is not allowed to be a force in "their" competitions.  But what have we done about that.  Well for the Warriors and the Breakers, they made finals.  They played above the officiating and won games on sheer guts and hard work and by and large ignored the poor officiating.  Yes there was still bias, but they ignored that by playing winning sport. The Nix can take a leaf from that book, ignore the bias, concentrate on quality football, win against the odds, and make finals.

It's also fair to say that Warriors and Breakers have earned their badges.  They have overcome and conquered.  Can the Nix?

One last word about the officials.  Why are there a lack of New Zealand officials in all competitions. Be nice to have the boot on the other foot for once!