Hagley Oval - into the Big Wide Open.

Kia ora folks.  We are two days way from the start of the 3rd Test in Christchurch.  This will be the 7th Test to be played there.  And it is turning out being a great venue for test Cricket with 4 comprehensive wins and an equally comprehensive win to Australia, and with that Math, leaves a drawn  result with England.

Following are a breakdown of the results.

2014  versus Sri Lanka with a Win by 8 wickets.
2016  versus Australia  with a Loss by 7 wickets.
2016  versus Pakistan with a Win by 8 wickets.
2017  versus Bangladesh with a Win by 9 wickets.
2014  versus England with a Drawn match.
2014  versus Sri Lanka with a Win by 423 runs..

Be interesting to see who walks out on the field, a good opportunity to blood second tier players.

Ka kite ano.

Blackcaps versus Bangladesh at Seddon Park recap

Our Blackcaps have played two tests against Bangladesh at Seddon Park, in December 2001 and again in February 2010. Suffice to say we won both handsomely (2001 by an Innings and 52 runs, 2010 by 121  runs).

Notable stats from those tests

2001

Mark Richardson - 143
Craig McMillan  106
Shane Bond 4/47
Chris Cairns  7/53

2010

Martin Guptill  189
Brendon McCullum  185
Bowling stats shared, no stand outs.

So for Test Three there between the two teams?

Judging by this Bangladesh team it's going to be another whitewash.  We have batting potential right down to 7 and a very well balanced bowling attack.  I think the Deshies need a bit of luck with the toss but Kane has been on the money lately.  I think Kane will use his side and back himself to bat first and bat themselves into a great position.

Then again the sporting Gods can turn the tables.

Blackcaps at Arms - A wonderful Team

We don't need to dwell on this years triumphs, when we have a summer of cricket in 2019 to contend with.

First up a 5 match ODI series versus India.  Both sides are on a roll so should make for  a great and close series.  India are 2nd on ICC Rankings and Blackcaps are 3rd.

Matches are scheduled for the following:

1st ODI  23/1  at McLean Park
2nd ODI 26/1 at Bay Oval
3rd ODI 28/1 also at Bay Oval
4th ODI  31/1 at Seddon Park
5th ODI  3/2 at Westpac


Later in February Bangladesh play 3 ODI's and 3 tests.  I'm expecting big things now we have consistent performances and frankly I think Bangladesh will be lesser performed than Sri Lanka.

ODI's (Bangladesh are 7th on the rankings)

1st ODI  13/2 at McLean Park
2nd ODI  16/2  at Hagley Oval
3rd ODI  20/2  at University Oval

3 Tests

1st Test  28/2 at Seddon Park
2nd Test  8/3  at Basin Reserve
3rd Test  16/3 at Hagley Oval.

Mouth watering prospects.  Remember our top 5 batsmen are combined averages of each of their last 25 innings at 49.7 (Lowest is Raval on 40 and highest is Latham on 56.9)

Poor Selections in Champions Trophy

So where have the high flying  Kiwi cricketers gone in the ODI world.  A less than inspiring tri series in Ireland should have given the management something to think about leading into the CT17.  Yes, given our top cricketers were away on IPL duty, but losing to Bangladesh then (and subsequently in the CT17) suggested management were not in touch with cricketing reality.


So what of the CT17 form.  Well simply put the middle and lower orders failed.  Broom, Neesham, Santner and Anderson failed to fire, the latter, bat and ball. deGrandhomme not a go to man when his recent form suggests he should be a permanent fixture, 5 with bat and slow bowler option. Anderson playing at 7 (Ronchi at 6 with Tom Latham opening)  After two games Santner was obviously out of his depth, so more experienced Patel a better option not used.

Saddest news - Blackcaps don't have a test/ODI until 2018 ish with a T20 tri-series in Feb with England/Australia.  Not a good look for them.  There is no programmed international cricket for a team that needs competition to rectify the twin losses recently to Bangladesh (On our conditions).

I'm not sure who has the final say in game day selections but Hesson/Williamson desperately need to get savvy with selections and consequently positive results.  Historically we have always had  a great Middle order and there has to be either a better performing incumbents or cut and thrust selections (George Worker at 5, deG 6 maybe)??

So having failed against England (with results similar to earlier Tri Series,) a chance opened for wholesale changes to ensure the Bangladesh result.  On a seam friendly pitch a good chance to go with 4 seamers (Boult, Southee, Milne and Henry) and deG & Patel.  Fair to say Ronchi isn't an opener and could better be used at 6 or 7 as a closer with the older ball. If our team's not doing it with the Bat  then we need a bowling team to help carry the weight a bit.

ODI - 10 wicket wins - stats.

There have been 48 10 wicket wins in all ODI's since 1970's.  The only two nations not to score a victory by that means are Bangladesh and Zimbabwe.  All other nations are represented.  Here they are by order with greatest exponent of that win format last.

1  Kenya

4  Australia
    Pakistan

5  India
    Sri Lanka
    England

6  South Africa

8  New Zealand  (1981 India, 2007 Australia, Bangladesh, England, 2011 Kenya, 2012 Zimbabwe, 2015 Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka)

10  West Indies

Digesting the finalists - Cricket World Cup 2015

It's fast drawing on finals times and so far the table looks set in stone.  Well almost!  Pool B top four is not clear cut.  Windies will beat UAE in their final match and end up on 6 point, same as Ireland and Pakistan.Temporarily they will fill 4th spot on NRR until the Ireland and Pakistan match is played.  And here is the rub of the green.  If Pakistan beat Ireland and Irelands NRR worsens, the Windies go through (as they will improve their NRR vs UAE one suspects.)  So the likely Pool matchups are this after some crystal ball gazing and interpretations:

Pool A
New Zealand Should end on 12 points but could be on 10 - 1st
Australia  Should beat Scotland and progress to 9 points - 2nd
Sri Lanka who will end on 8 points - 3rd or 4th
Bangladesh - now here's the rub of the green, if they beat New Zealand then they move into 3rd on 9 points behind Australia on NRR. Probably 4th.

Pool B
India - Should beat Zimbabwe and top the group. 1st
South Africa should beat UAE and finish 2nd on 8 points
Pakistan should conquer Ireland and end up 3rd on 8 points and weaker NRR than SA
West Indies should knock Ireland out on NRR which is strange as Ireland beat West Indies in Pool play and probably have a stronger case to go through.

So Quarterfinals matchups.

New Zealand vs West Indies  New Zealand are the form team with India in this Cup, but against a resurgent West Indies will have to be on their A game.  The Windies does have some class, but across the board they appear a little fragile.  Win Rating NZ 80% WI 20%

Australia vs Pakistan - On paper the Australians should prove too strong but what is well known, given a chance to upset, Pakistan will and they have the firepower to do so, as long as their top order fires and helps the team cause.  Win Rating  Aus 65%  Pakistan 35%

India vs Bangladesh - really, no contest and this game will serve as a warning to all other teams in the finals.  Win Rating  India 100%  Bangladesh 0%

South Africa vs Sri Lanka  The Big Game!!  These two sides are excitement machines and it would be a shame one doesn't make it to semis or final.  So where will a win come from.  Both have formidable batting lineups and a strong bowling cadre.  The key is how Malinga goes.  If he doesn't take wickets then South Africa are ahead on points.  Win Rating  SA 55%  SL 45%

All eyes on the prize

With a little under 5 weeks to go all eyes in the cricketing world are switching to Australia and New Zealand.  No not the SLvNZ and AusvInd test series, the domestic cricket.  How so??

A while back (maybe a  week or so) an Indian on my twitter feed was ruing the state of his team and was not looking forward to the world cup as the pitches would favour the two local teams and countries that play on similar surfaces.  This was also echoed by a Pakistani tweep.  Australia they're not too worried about as pitches tend to favour runs scoring with plenty of bounce and true lines.  But New Zealand pitches have a reputation of being green decks with plenty for the bowlers and the batsmen have to really dig in to score runs  At that time I told both that they had nothing to worry about as our domestic pitches are roads now and runscoring is not an issue.

And that seems to be the truth.  Saxton Oval is the only CWC pitch to be used thus far in Ford Trophy and a highscoring game, and Hagley had a test that produced plenty of runs. McLean Park is historically a road, so that leaves Eden Park and Westpac Stadium (drop ins) and University Oval and Seddon Park (test venues).  I think it's fair to say the drop ins are generally conducive to run getting so there should be no fears there.  Of all the venues, the unknown quantity will be University Oval and Seddon Park.

I'd say all teams coming here shall be greeted by hard dry pitches with runs in them (as a hot dry summer goes on).  And should New Zealand progress to finals stage at MCG having played on those decks should stand them in good stead in Aussie.

A Year Out from the CWC 2015 - Who is in the Frame

A Year Out from the CWC 2015 - Who is in the Frame

One Day Cricket, often lately as seen the lesser light of the three forms by cricketing pundits, is resurgent.  It's unfair to say the players don't like it as judging by recent matches, there is plenty to play for and series haven't been cut and dry nor dominated by one side, except perhaps the New Zealand versus India home series just completed and Aussie over England.

Teams do love the game, it's generally close and generally well followed by the spectators. Last year, especially in New Zealand, there had been calls from the cricketing public to just play Tests and T20, but to be fair that was by a public that was following a team that couldn't compete too well.  The recent series wins by New Zealand away to South Africa and England started to change some minds, then the good performances at home to West Indies and India, coupled with the launch of the CWC 2015 has seen those detractors diminish and more folks going to games and being in a positive frame.

So what of the Cricket World Cup.  Who will be the teams to watch?  Well it's a year away yet and to be fair there are some critical series to be played out this year.  I'm going to analyse the teams and will firstly highlight those cricketing nations that are causing all the ructions in world cricket with their stance on controlling the game.

Australia.  Currently Number One in the rankings and with a comprehensive 4-1 defeat over England at home suggests they will be in the mix next year.  But their 3-2 loss earlier last year in India suggests on their day they could be fragile, but on home soil clear favourites.  However I do think come semi's they'll fold.

India.  Currently Number Two.  With a series win over Aussie last year, and a win over Windies at home too, they looked the goods, but away losses to South Africa and New Zealand must have dented their chances, and with recent losses to Pakistan and Sri Lanka in the Asia Cup, they may be struggling.  They are a young new team with some old heads, but they need to pull some more consistency out of the bag, especially away, to be a threat at CWC 2015.

England.  With series losses in 2013 to New Zealand and Australia at home, then a 4-1 thumping away to Australia, England are struggling.  They are still rebuilding to some extent and at time of writing have managed to square their ODI series in the Caribbean after two matches.  In a years’ time, maybe a semi-finalist come CWC 2015, but have to improve markedly.

And now the teams biting at the top three’s heels.

Sri Lanka are a dark horse in the equation.  Perennially a top five ODI team, they do have the fire power to win matches, though they do tend to rely heavily on Kumar Sangakkara, Lasith Malinga, and spin.  If they appear at CWC 2015 without one or two of those three they'll be in the mix but not rated a chance. The key to this supposition is their recent loss to Pakistan 3-2 at home.

South Africa are also a dark horse.  They do alright at home but also have issues playing away and with CWC 2015 being an away tournament they may find themselves on the losing end more often than not.  They do have a good well balanced unit so in with a chance but they'll need a lot going for them.

West Indies are another to watch.  They seem to be a team that one day plays very well, the next playing like dogs.  They recently drew the series versus New Zealand, and currently share the series with England.  The Calypso kings on their day could be world beaters, but realistically they may end up also-rans.  Mind you, in the past few months they have been a young team playing on the back of key players out injured.  They have a year to get it right.  Can they?

Pakistan to me are the form team in world ODI cricket.  They win the tight ones.  They win away (naturally they can’t play at home).  They play a good 50 over game, across the park.  Well balanced, well captained, playing well.  I'm sticking my neck out here, but I'm going to say they will be in the final of next year’s CWC 2015.

New Zealand.  The other finalist.  I think the key to how both Pakistan and New Zealand are going is New Zealand's series coming up in UAE in November.  This series to me will be the defining moment for both teams and a momentum swing leading into CWC2015.  New Zealand in the last year have won three ODI series (2 away), drawn 2 (1 away 1 home) and lost a series in Bangladesh, a blip on the radar (and a different team now).  Playing the CWC games at home will be a fillip, thinking back to 1992, and they should ride a wave of support and parochialism.

Of the rest, Bangladesh will provide nuisance factor, winning the odd one or two, yes they should be buoyed with their series whitewash of a weakened New Zealand team last year, but as can be seen in the Asia Cup, against the top teams, and even on their home soil, they are out of their depth.  Afghanistan will also be a fun team to watch, winning their match versus Bangladesh quite comprehensively means they too will surprise in some games. Ireland, Scotland, United Arab Emirates and Zimbabwe will be there to make up numbers.