Wednesday, 11 March 2015

Digesting the finalists - Cricket World Cup 2015

It's fast drawing on finals times and so far the table looks set in stone.  Well almost!  Pool B top four is not clear cut.  Windies will beat UAE in their final match and end up on 6 point, same as Ireland and Pakistan.Temporarily they will fill 4th spot on NRR until the Ireland and Pakistan match is played.  And here is the rub of the green.  If Pakistan beat Ireland and Irelands NRR worsens, the Windies go through (as they will improve their NRR vs UAE one suspects.)  So the likely Pool matchups are this after some crystal ball gazing and interpretations:

Pool A
New Zealand Should end on 12 points but could be on 10 - 1st
Australia  Should beat Scotland and progress to 9 points - 2nd
Sri Lanka who will end on 8 points - 3rd or 4th
Bangladesh - now here's the rub of the green, if they beat New Zealand then they move into 3rd on 9 points behind Australia on NRR. Probably 4th.

Pool B
India - Should beat Zimbabwe and top the group. 1st
South Africa should beat UAE and finish 2nd on 8 points
Pakistan should conquer Ireland and end up 3rd on 8 points and weaker NRR than SA
West Indies should knock Ireland out on NRR which is strange as Ireland beat West Indies in Pool play and probably have a stronger case to go through.

So Quarterfinals matchups.

New Zealand vs West Indies  New Zealand are the form team with India in this Cup, but against a resurgent West Indies will have to be on their A game.  The Windies does have some class, but across the board they appear a little fragile.  Win Rating NZ 80% WI 20%

Australia vs Pakistan - On paper the Australians should prove too strong but what is well known, given a chance to upset, Pakistan will and they have the firepower to do so, as long as their top order fires and helps the team cause.  Win Rating  Aus 65%  Pakistan 35%

India vs Bangladesh - really, no contest and this game will serve as a warning to all other teams in the finals.  Win Rating  India 100%  Bangladesh 0%

South Africa vs Sri Lanka  The Big Game!!  These two sides are excitement machines and it would be a shame one doesn't make it to semis or final.  So where will a win come from.  Both have formidable batting lineups and a strong bowling cadre.  The key is how Malinga goes.  If he doesn't take wickets then South Africa are ahead on points.  Win Rating  SA 55%  SL 45%

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