Thursday, 10 July 2014

FIFA World Cup 2014 Final - Tale of the Tape


So Argentina and Germany face off in their third clash in a final of a World Cup match.  Below is a look at the road to that final and a mathematical evaluation of who is likely to win.

Argentina For Against  Team Ranking
Ranked 5 1 0 Iran 43
3 2 Nigeria 44
1 0 Switzerland 6
1 0 Belgium 11
0 0 Netherlands 15
 Total 6 2 119
 Averages 1.2 0.4 23.8
Germany For Against  Team Ranking
Ranked 2 2 2 Ghana 37
1 0 USA 13
2 1 Algeria 22
1 0 France 17
7 1 Brazil 3
 Total 13 4 92
 Averages 2.6 0.8 18.4

Argentina have scored around half the goals the Germans have this tournament, but have also conceded half (in fact four clean sheets to the Germans two).  It's obvious from these stats that the Brazil game balloons Germany's stats, an aberration, but they do appear to be the better team on goal.  However from the stats the Argentinian defense is rock solid so it seems both teams are well matched on paper.

I can't (and won't) pick a winner as I see this as too close to call.  Statistically the Germans should win by a score of 1-0, but I'm sure Argentina will have something to say about that.

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